Propylene is an important petrochemical base material after ethylene. In 2004, China's downstream propylene derivatives consumed about 6.346 million tons of propylene. Among them, polypropylene is the largest consumer of propylene, and the consumption of propylene accounts for about 74.9% of the total propylene consumption. Acrylonitrile is the second largest derivative of propylene in China, accounting for about 10.1 of the total consumption. %; followed by about 5.9% of propylene oxide, about 6.3% of octanol, and about 2.8% of other chemical products.
It is expected that polypropylene will continue to be the largest derivative of propylene in the near future, and its proportion of propylene consumption will be further increased. In order to meet the production demand of acrylic fiber and ABS, China will continue to expand its acrylonitrile production capacity, and its consumption of propylene will still maintain a high proportion. In addition, as the demand for polyethers and phenols continues to increase, the demand for propylene oxide and acetone, in particular, will increase at a slightly faster rate than other propylene derivatives, and the proportion of propylene consumed will continue to increase.
From 2005 to 2010, the annual average growth rate of the production capacity of propylene equipment in China will reach 5.7%. It is estimated that in 2010, the production capacity of ethylene-produced propylene will reach approximately 7.22 million tons/year, and the total propylene production capacity will reach 10.8 million tons. /year. The proportion of propylene supplied by ethylene units to total propylene supply will further increase.
However, during the same period, the demand for propylene from downstream devices will also maintain a certain growth. It is expected that the annual average growth rate of apparent propylene consumption in China from 2005 to 2010 will reach approximately 5.8%, and the apparent consumption in 2005 will reach approximately 7.92 million tons, and it will reach 10.49 million tons in 2010. It is estimated that from 2005 to 2010, the average annual growth rate of China's propylene equivalent demand will reach 7.6%. By 2010, the equivalent demand for propylene will reach 19.05 million tons. Therefore, from the perspective of equivalent demand, the supply and demand gap for propylene will reach 8.25 million tons in 2010, and the contradiction between supply and demand is very prominent.
To this end, some experts made six suggestions:
First, in the future, China should change the concept of “ethylene center†dominated by traditional ethylene production, adjust and reform the production structure of ethylene/propylene, introduce the concept of “propylene center†at appropriate time, and reconstruct the old device according to the specific conditions of various markets. During the construction process, China gradually formed a pattern in which “ethylene center†and “propylene center†coexisted to meet the demand and supply of ethylene and propylene at the same time. By increasing the ethylene production capacity of propylene units to increase the production of propylene, and at the same time further improve the quality grade of polypropylene products in China, and promote the development of polypropylene and other industries.
The second is to break the existing self-sufficient market supply status so that propylene supply can be fully marketed. In the future, attention should be paid to the consideration of the propylene supply market for refineries to increase the production of propylene in refineries and the rational use of propylene resources; and to reform and adjust the refinery production structure to form a short-process, shallow-processing refinery that matches the market demand. Long-process, deep processing refineries coexist in production structures to increase the concentration of propylene production in refineries, and effectively use and promote the development of refinery propylene production technology. In addition, we must also research, develop, introduce, and improve the refinery propylene production technology in a timely manner to further increase propylene production and quality.
Thirdly, from the perspective of several processes for increasing propylene production at home and abroad, there is less investment in the production of propylene through the FCC upgrade, and the efficiency is quick. The DCC process developed by the Petrochemical Research Institute of Sinopec Group Corporation has taken a leading position in the world and should be adopted continuously. Improvement and development will make this technology more and more important in the production of propylene in China. Although the propane dehydrogenation process is a process that exclusively produces propylene, it is limited to the relative shortage of propane resources in China, especially the lack of wet natural gas fields with high propane content. Therefore, the process conditions for the development of propane dehydrogenation in China are not yet mature.
Fourth, although the olefin disproportionation process consumes ethylene, it is particularly competitive under the premise that the price of propylene exceeds the price of ethylene, and there are already industrialized production facilities abroad. Therefore, there is great potential for the development of olefin disproportionation processes in China.
Fifth, from the perspective of investment costs and production costs, the C4/C5 hydrocarbon selective cracking process is the most attractive process among the four propylene production processes. The production process of C4/C5 hydrocarbon cracking to propylene with independent intellectual property rights developed by the Shanghai Petrochemical Research Institute and other units in China should accelerate the pace of research and development and achieve industrialization as soon as possible.
Sixthly, the methanol industry in China has developed rapidly in recent years. China should make full use of the abundant methanol resources and strengthen the technical research on the production of propylene from the methanol process. This will not only increase the economic efficiency of China's methanol production plant, but also alleviate the tension in the supply of propylene. .
It is expected that polypropylene will continue to be the largest derivative of propylene in the near future, and its proportion of propylene consumption will be further increased. In order to meet the production demand of acrylic fiber and ABS, China will continue to expand its acrylonitrile production capacity, and its consumption of propylene will still maintain a high proportion. In addition, as the demand for polyethers and phenols continues to increase, the demand for propylene oxide and acetone, in particular, will increase at a slightly faster rate than other propylene derivatives, and the proportion of propylene consumed will continue to increase.
From 2005 to 2010, the annual average growth rate of the production capacity of propylene equipment in China will reach 5.7%. It is estimated that in 2010, the production capacity of ethylene-produced propylene will reach approximately 7.22 million tons/year, and the total propylene production capacity will reach 10.8 million tons. /year. The proportion of propylene supplied by ethylene units to total propylene supply will further increase.
However, during the same period, the demand for propylene from downstream devices will also maintain a certain growth. It is expected that the annual average growth rate of apparent propylene consumption in China from 2005 to 2010 will reach approximately 5.8%, and the apparent consumption in 2005 will reach approximately 7.92 million tons, and it will reach 10.49 million tons in 2010. It is estimated that from 2005 to 2010, the average annual growth rate of China's propylene equivalent demand will reach 7.6%. By 2010, the equivalent demand for propylene will reach 19.05 million tons. Therefore, from the perspective of equivalent demand, the supply and demand gap for propylene will reach 8.25 million tons in 2010, and the contradiction between supply and demand is very prominent.
To this end, some experts made six suggestions:
First, in the future, China should change the concept of “ethylene center†dominated by traditional ethylene production, adjust and reform the production structure of ethylene/propylene, introduce the concept of “propylene center†at appropriate time, and reconstruct the old device according to the specific conditions of various markets. During the construction process, China gradually formed a pattern in which “ethylene center†and “propylene center†coexisted to meet the demand and supply of ethylene and propylene at the same time. By increasing the ethylene production capacity of propylene units to increase the production of propylene, and at the same time further improve the quality grade of polypropylene products in China, and promote the development of polypropylene and other industries.
The second is to break the existing self-sufficient market supply status so that propylene supply can be fully marketed. In the future, attention should be paid to the consideration of the propylene supply market for refineries to increase the production of propylene in refineries and the rational use of propylene resources; and to reform and adjust the refinery production structure to form a short-process, shallow-processing refinery that matches the market demand. Long-process, deep processing refineries coexist in production structures to increase the concentration of propylene production in refineries, and effectively use and promote the development of refinery propylene production technology. In addition, we must also research, develop, introduce, and improve the refinery propylene production technology in a timely manner to further increase propylene production and quality.
Thirdly, from the perspective of several processes for increasing propylene production at home and abroad, there is less investment in the production of propylene through the FCC upgrade, and the efficiency is quick. The DCC process developed by the Petrochemical Research Institute of Sinopec Group Corporation has taken a leading position in the world and should be adopted continuously. Improvement and development will make this technology more and more important in the production of propylene in China. Although the propane dehydrogenation process is a process that exclusively produces propylene, it is limited to the relative shortage of propane resources in China, especially the lack of wet natural gas fields with high propane content. Therefore, the process conditions for the development of propane dehydrogenation in China are not yet mature.
Fourth, although the olefin disproportionation process consumes ethylene, it is particularly competitive under the premise that the price of propylene exceeds the price of ethylene, and there are already industrialized production facilities abroad. Therefore, there is great potential for the development of olefin disproportionation processes in China.
Fifth, from the perspective of investment costs and production costs, the C4/C5 hydrocarbon selective cracking process is the most attractive process among the four propylene production processes. The production process of C4/C5 hydrocarbon cracking to propylene with independent intellectual property rights developed by the Shanghai Petrochemical Research Institute and other units in China should accelerate the pace of research and development and achieve industrialization as soon as possible.
Sixthly, the methanol industry in China has developed rapidly in recent years. China should make full use of the abundant methanol resources and strengthen the technical research on the production of propylene from the methanol process. This will not only increase the economic efficiency of China's methanol production plant, but also alleviate the tension in the supply of propylene. .
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