140-year shipping cycle track

Since 2008, the wheel of the shipping cycle has crushed the prosperity of the shipping industry. While the shipping industry is scared and cursed, it is imperative that a deeper understanding of this "damn" shipping cycle is needed. In today's world, regardless of seafood, maritime transport, coastal defense, maritime research, or maritime resources, it is inseparable from navigation and shipping. The ocean seems to be a sunrise industry that breeds hope. However, in the years from 2008 to the present, the wheel of the shipping cycle has crushed the prosperity of the shipping industry, the rapid collapse of market conditions, the fate of many companies have been changed, and the shipping industry has been shocked and cursed at the same time. Need to re-understand this "damn" shipping cycle.

1873C Shipping cycle in 1985 Although it is now considered that the shipping industry is a typical "strongly cyclical" industry, before the second half of the 19th century, people did not realize this because its origins, changes, and development processes have no cycle. Traces can be followed.

Before the birth of the World Shipping Index in 1985, it was very difficult to analyze the shipping cycle completely and accurately due to the lack of globally unified data records. After studying the relevant literature, the author made the following estimation of the world shipping cycle in 1873C1985: At that time, the maritime shipping industry in various countries was an industry that could enter freely without approval, and the market was in complete competition. 1873C In 1985, the world seaborne industry experienced roughly 12 cycles, which is basically consistent with the mid-cycle fluctuations of the world economy. With the recurrence of a cycle of downturns, recovery, prosperity and fallback, large and small shipping and trading companies have become commonplace in this industry. In early 1877, the China Merchants Cheongchang Steamship Company was a Classic example. During this period of time, the characteristics of the world's seaborne trade are just the opposite to the present, that is, the ship is relatively concentrated and the goods are relatively scattered.

No one in the shipping cycle has escaped the constraints of the shipping cycle since 1985, and the brutal competition rules of “Survival of the fittest” have made business managers feel strongly that only by accurately understanding and understanding the laws of the shipping cycle can corresponding changes be made in the shipping cycle. Correct and reasonable decision-making can well manage and overcome the shipping cycle and become a strong player in the shipping industry.

The following figure is a global BDI change trend from March 1985 to June 2013 drawn from the monthly global BDI data released by the HKBU since 1985, from which we can analyze the basic changes in the world shipping cycle over the past 30 years.

The first cycle: Jugla's cycle From the first quarter of 1985 to the third quarter of 1992, people saw a complete operation of the typical "Zhugera cycle" with a distinct 9-year time series characteristic of the world shipping industry. From one trough to one crest to another trough, there are three short-cycle CCC cycles (stock consumption cycles): the first quarter of 1985, the third quarter of 1986, the third quarter of 1986, the third quarter of 1990, and the third quarter of 1990. Quarter to the fourth quarter of 1994.

The second cycle: still in the Juglas cycle. From the third quarter of 1992 to the fourth quarter of 2001, one sees the complete operation of a typical "Zugla's cycle" with obvious 10-year time series characteristics in the shipping industry. The process also went from a trough to a wave to another wave, with three Gichin cycles: 1992 third quarter to 1994 first quarter, 1994 first quarter to 1998 third quarter, and 1998 third quarter to 2001 four. Quarterly.

The third cycle: the Juglas cycle or the Kuznets cycle. The fourth quarter of 2001 is still up until the next day. People have seen at least one cyclical process that has occurred in the maritime industry for more than a decade's obvious time sequence characteristics. It is also believed that it will move from a trough to a peak to another trough. There are several Kichin cycles in the end: From the fourth quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2005, the third quarter of 2005, the fourth quarter of 2008, and the fourth quarter of 2008, there is still a long "Kuznets cycle" and two "Jugura" are included in it. "In the middle cycle" (in each "Zhugera middle cycle", there are several Kinchin short cycles).

I am afraid that this is the answer to the tens of millions of practitioners in the global shipping, shipbuilding and port industries, including “from the spire to the base”.

At present, this is a long-term operation of shipping that is evolving but has not yet been completed.

The extensive Juglas cycle in 1862, French doctor, economist Klemente? In the book “Commercial Crisis in France, Britain, and the United States and the Occurrence Cycle”, Jugla first proposed that there are 9 to 10 years of cyclical fluctuations in the market economy. This medium-length economic cycle is later called the “Zhugera cycle”. Also known as the "Zhugera cycle."

The "Zugla cycle" theory is based on the principle of renewed investment in fixed equipment and fluctuations in investment returns. This is a cyclical phenomenon that is widely seen in the socio-economic development of various countries. It is particularly evident in mature economies. Even emerging economies will emerge. For example, someone specifically summarized the economic development of China during its more than 30 years of reform and opening up, and believed that China’s economic development since 1981 has also clearly gone through three rounds of the “Zugla cycle”: the first round was 1981C in 1990, and 1990 was the second round in 1999. 2000C is the third round of the cycle, and China's three "Zugla cycle" starting year (the bottom) is obviously one year earlier than the United States.

The first cycle (1981-1990) started with reform and opening up, rapid rural economic development, and the exchange of urban commodities. Eventually, there was a lack of market capacity, inflation of prices, rising unemployment, and crisis in township enterprises. The second cycle ( (1990-1999) The overall reform policies such as the reform of urban enterprises and the establishment of a market economy were the characteristics of system reform, light industrial manufacturing was the characteristic of the industrial structure, and the rapid development of import-oriented economy led to the lack of domestic demand and deflation as incentives. , and ended with the Asian financial crisis; the third cycle (2000-2009) is characterized by comprehensive opening-up policies such as urbanization reforms, accession to the WTO, etc., and real estate and heavy chemical industry as the characteristics of the industry, and export-oriented. The rapid economic development eventually led to asset price bubbles and weak net export growth, and ended with the US subprime mortgage crisis as an event. Since 2010, it is currently in the fourth "Zugla cycle" operation period.

From the point of view of the real economy, the "Zhugra cycle" is actually a mid- to long-term capital investment cycle and large-scale equipment update cycle with a time horizon of about 10 years. People can easily find that the heavy industry industrial chain, including steel, manufacturing, shipping, electricity, metal mines, coal, ports, and building materials, will undoubtedly be a typical "Zugla cycle." Under normal circumstances, the cycle of the law should be about 10 years, the ratio of the length of the rise and fall time is about 4:6. Of course, this is not absolute, as Jugla puts it, "has a direct relationship with the people's behavior, saving habits, and their use of available capital and credit."

People have discovered that in the shipping boom of the past century, the people’s investment behavior and the use of capital have greatly exceeded normal levels, and the number of large-scale shipping equipment renewal far exceeds the level required by market growth. . As a result, we expect that the next shipping cycle may not fully follow the normal time rule of the "Zhugra middle cycle," and will surely embark on a period of prolonged deformation, or even completely evolve into another long-term CC Kuznetsky. Cycles, a period of about 20 years.

Inland shipping is no exception. Some people may doubt the universality of the shipping industry cycle and consider that there will be exceptions, such as a special area of ​​shipping CC countries inland shipping market, Europe's Rhine, the Mississippi River in the Americas, the Yangtze River in China, and the countries along the coast area. Taking China’s Yangtze River Shipping as an example, it was observed that from the 1990s to the present, the former “Golden Waterway” has been in a long-term downturn for more than 20 years, and it does not show obvious cycle characteristics. It does not seem to follow the rules of the shipping cycle. Stand alone.

To illustrate this issue, the data should be the best evidence, but the Yangtze Shipping Comprehensive Freight Index was only compiled and published by Changjiang Shipping Network from the fourth quarter of 2007. So far, this data has not yet covered a complete shipping cycle. Therefore, it is impossible to reveal the regularity of the Yangtze River shipping cycle from the perspective of data analysis. That is to say, this index is not yet able to explain the problem well. However, decades of experience, review, and actual observations of some senior shipping industry professionals in the Yangtze River indicate that its periodicity exists. Under the influence of “three interest rates” (nominal interest rate, natural interest rate and real interest rate) and “two external factors” (low entry/exit threshold and decentralized management of industries in various provinces and cities), objectively, due to the low industrial natural interest rate and small The over-dispersed relationship between enterprises, the group of companies within the industry did not have a "herd effect", the price sensitivity becomes worse, resulting in a relatively passivation of the cyclical characteristics of the Yangtze River Shipping, and become a "narrow cycle" operation, that is, the high and low peaks The range of fluctuations is not as large as the world shipping market, which blurs the boundary between the medium and long periods. However, as long as careful observation, we can still find the cyclical pattern of China's inland shipping market and its relationship with the world shipping market cycle: the cyclical response of China's coastal market is about 6 months slower than the global shipping market cycle; the cycle response of the Yangtze shipping market is in turn It is roughly three months behind China's coastal market. This is still an obvious cyclical change.

Through the above analysis of the shipping cycle over the past few years, we have found that it is impossible for shipping companies to get rid of the shackles of the shipping cycle because the cycle cannot be eradicated.

No one can escape the baptism of the cycle of war. It is a long-term, uninterrupted battle. All economies, whether microcosmic or macroeconomic, are in the vortex of market competition and other economies. In the game, they also engage in systematic warfare against the world’s macroeconomic and industrial cycles, either driving the cycle vehicles, dancing with them, or being crushed into powder by the cycle vehicles and disappearing from the ground. However, shipping companies are destined to lose any periodic battle because the cost of a cyclical mistake is too great and too cruel. If one loses one battle, it means losing all.