From April 21 to April 22, the China Association of Automobile Engineers and Jifu Power Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. held the "2009 International Auto Transmission Technology and China Market Development Seminar" (hereinafter referred to as "2009 International Transmission Seminar") in Shanghai. ). The conference aims to promote international cooperation and exchanges and promote the development of automotive automatic transmission technology. However, from reports with strong academic atmosphere, it is not difficult for people to realize that multinational companies have launched the second “enclosure movement†in the Chinese automobile market. The protagonist of this “enclosure movement†is the automobile powertrain. One of the core - automatic transmission.
How fertile the Chinese market is
At the “2009 International Transmission Seminarâ€, the reporter discovered a strange phenomenon: He did not see a Chinese man talking about the automatic transmission market. The Japanese company can express the Chinese market is Gatco Automatic Transmission Co., Ltd.
According to data provided by Ghat, the output of the Chinese dual pedal car (automatic car) market in China in 2008 was 2.1 million units, accounting for 37% of the market; by 2015, the output of dual pedal car will reach 4.5 million units. It has a market share of 47%. Ninety-one percent of dual-pedalic vehicles will be equipped with engines with a torque of 101 to 250 Nm, of which approximately 700,000 will be 101 to 150 Nm, accounting for 17% of the market; about 1.6 million will be 151 to 200 Nm, accounting for 39% of the total. About 1.5 million vehicles ranged from 201 to 250 Nm, accounting for 35% of the market. Another 9% of the market is occupied by more than 250Nm engines. At the same time, as the fuel economy regulations will be stricter year after year, the demand for high fuel economy transmissions such as 6AT (6-speed automatic transmission), CVT (continuously variable transmission) and DCT (dual clutch automatic transmission) is increasing.
Before 2015, the self-owned brands are in a high-speed growth period, which is also a critical period for determining and forming a certain technology route. At present, self-owned brand companies lack the talents and funds for the development of automatic transmissions. Therefore, despite the research and development of the entire vehicle, the independent brands have made significant progress in design, engine technology, and transmission system design. The only thing that has not broken through is the automatic transmission. This bottleneck.
The second "enclosure movement" of foreign capital
As far as the technical route is concerned, at present there are five major MT (manual transmission), AMT (electric-mechanical shift transmission), AT (automatic transmission), CVT (continuously variable transmission), and DCT (dual-clutch automatic transmission). Transmission. With the introduction of vehicle technology, advanced automatic transmission technology has entered the Chinese market, and the scope of influence of foreign automatic transmission manufacturing companies in China is also determined by the position of the OEM in the Chinese market.
With the expansion of the Chinese market and the ever-increasing sales of self-owned branded products, foreign automatic transmission manufacturing companies must attract independent brands to embark on their own technology routes if they want to increase market share in China. As a result, the competition for self-owned brands and cooperation with them has become the second “enclosure exercise†for foreign automatic transmission manufacturers in the Chinese market.
Before DCT appeared, the industry believed that the path of automatic transmission development was only CVT and AT. AMT was not favored by automatic transmission manufacturers due to poor comfort. Japanese companies have relatively thorough research on CVT, so Japanese cars use CVT more commonly. The European users have a particular preference for the sports sense of the car. This consumption habit makes the European market have a special liking for transmissions with gears. Therefore, the European market is in the position of coexistence of MT and AT. The CVT cannot satisfy the driving pleasure. Because of European needs, CVT is rarely used in the European market. In the United States, due to the relatively high requirements for comfort, the market has shown a clear demand for AT and CVT.
In terms of product features, CVT is smooth, flexible, simple in structure, has obvious advantages in terms of energy saving, and the manufacturing cost is not high; its disadvantage is that it can not transmit large torque, the steel belt, pressure plate for power transmission The requirements are quite high and pressure plate pressure control is difficult. AT's ride comfort is good, but due to the use of hydraulic coupling to transmit power, resulting in engine power loss of about 15%, coupled with the use of a complex planetary gear system, making AT manufacturing difficulties, higher manufacturing costs. For consumers, the cost of using CVT is relatively high and the failure rate is relatively high. However, the failure rate of AT is very low and the cost of use is relatively low.
The appearance of DCT changed all this. DCT has the characteristics of simple structure, minimal power loss, and large transmission torque. At the same time, it has the characteristics of smoothness, good acceleration, outstanding energy-saving effect, and the manufacturing cost and manufacturing difficulty are much lower than AT. From a structural point of view, the DCT actually combines two manual transmissions, adds a double clutch, and changes the control module and control software. Therefore, for the Chinese auto industry, if we take the DCT route, we can make maximum use of the existing, mature manual transmission manufacturing system. As long as we break through the dual clutch and electronic control parts, the Chinese auto industry can break through the powertrain. The smallest bottleneck is to achieve leapfrog development; DCT also fully meets the needs of China's energy strategy and meets the requirements of China's auto industry for energy conservation and emission reduction.
It is against this background that the top 12 national automobile companies have jointly invested and formed a joint venture with BorgWarner Inc. to jointly develop and develop DCT, with a view to achieving a strategic technological breakthrough in the Chinese automobile industry. This action just touched the nerves of CVT and AT's major manufacturing companies in China and poses a serious threat to their second “enclosure movement†in the Chinese market.
The choice of strategy
At present, CVT technology is mainly controlled by Japan. AT technology is mainly controlled by a few chassis suppliers in Germany and internationally. It is difficult for China to achieve beyond these two areas. After years of unremitting efforts, China has fully mastered the manual transmission technology. AMT technology has also made significant breakthroughs in recent years. However, in the field of passenger vehicles, AMT technology can be used for small cars, and can not adapt to the use of B-class cars, and even higher-level cars. In order for independent brands to move from the low-level market to the high-end market and to move from the Chinese market to the international market, they must master the automatic transmission technology; if they want to achieve a technological breakthrough, they must choose a traditional automatic transmission manufacturing company that has not used it and is at the forefront of development. New technology path that meets future development directions.
Looking at the Chinese transmission industry, some old companies are merged by multinational companies, some are struggling on the death line, and some have just made breakthroughs in the AMT field. If there is no future-oriented technology, China’s transmission industry will be difficult to get out of the low point and it will be difficult to catch high speeds. The development of the car industry this express train. If China chooses the CVT route, it will undoubtedly need to establish a supporting system in addition to the existing transmission industry system in China. With the substantial increase in the use of CVT, it will bring new impact to the existing transmission manufacturing system. If we choose the AT route, Chinese enterprises must achieve technological breakthroughs in terms of gear clearance control, manufacturing precision control, lubrication technology, noise reduction technology, and electronic control systems. Otherwise, an autonomous automatic transmission system cannot be established.
From the use of DCT, Volkswagen installed the first dual-clutch transmission on the GOLFR32 in 2003 and achieved very good performance. Since then, it has continuously increased the use of dual-clutch transmission. In 2003, the car equipped with a dual-clutch transmission reached 4 10,000 vehicles, 250,000 in 2004, 620,000 in 2005, 730,000 in 2006, and 1.01 million in 2008. In December 2007, the 1 millionth dual-clutch transmission was rolled out at its Kassel plant in Germany. During this period, the dual-clutch transmission has not experienced any quality problems. The current public dual-clutch transmission has reached the 7th gear, and the effect of energy-saving and emission reduction is even more prominent. In 2010, Volkswagen's transmission plant in Dalian, Volkswagen Automatic Transmission (Dalian) Co., Ltd., will produce a dual clutch transmission with a capacity of 1,000 units per day. If a large number of independent brands adopt DCT technology, it is entirely possible to form a new industrial chain in China relying on traditional transmission manufacturers, and at the same time greatly reduce the cost of DCT.
According to the idea of ​​using information to transform traditional industries, the road to DCT can undoubtedly maximize the integration of existing resources and maximize the contribution to the industry. From the technical point of view, both DCT and AMT use electronically controlled mechanical gears to achieve variable speeds. If DCT technology achieves a breakthrough, this will bring about a breakthrough in AMT technology, and the technology level of China's transmission industry will be greatly improved.
As far as the general direction is concerned, it is undoubtedly correct to organize the 12 companies to achieve the strategic direction of continuous horizontal and vertical breaks. However, because these 12 companies have different vehicle development directions and their respective selected technical routes, it is difficult to form consensus on the development direction and path of DCT and achieve joint development.
According to this, some people in the industry believe that on the one hand, the government should respect the choice of technology vehicles by the entire vehicle company and use its existing technology inventory advantages; on the other hand, it should support 12 companies to support some enterprises, that is to support those who are developing. The companies on the path that are consistent with the government's industrial development ideas form a new cooperation system and establish an autonomous automatic transmission research and manufacturing system.
In the future of China's auto market, the formation of a diversified pattern of automatic transmission products may be the basis for the steady development of China's auto industry in the future; and diversified technologies will also provide Chinese consumers with more extensive choices.
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