Benefiting from the substantial expansion of MOCVD capacity, Sanan Optoelectronics' estimated revenue in 2015 will increase by 43 to RMB 7 billion. The momentum may come from the government's demand for LED lighting. The production capacity of Sanan Optoelectronics will increase from 170 MOCBVD machines in 2014 to 270 units in 2015. Due to the higher efficiency of the newer machines, we estimate that its 2 inch wafers will increase by more than 130% in 2015. By the end of 2015, Sanan Optoelectronics' 2-inch wafers capacity will exceed that of the company, making it the world's largest supplier of InGaN wafers (with a market share of 20-25). Finally, although the company's 2015 revenue measurement is rather vague (only indicating a double-digit year-on-year growth), the market generally expects its 2015 revenue to grow 53% to 7.4 billion yuan, mainly due to its large Expansion plan. Estimated net profit after tax in 2015 is expected to increase by 36% to RMB 2 billion. According to market leading standards, profit growth is attractive: under the support of cost reduction measures, management estimates that 2015 gross margin will be Relatively flat. However, depreciation costs are gradually rising, and a substantial expansion may also lead to an accelerated decline in the average selling price of wafers. In view of this, it is more conservative to estimate that Sanan Optoelectronics' gross profit margin in 2015 will be 41.6, lower than the 2014 estimate of 43. 4Q14 financial report: The management did not explain the fourth quarter 2014 financial report, but the market expects the company's revenue in this quarter is expected to increase by 40% (the Center estimates a growth of 5%). If Sanan Optoelectronics' 4Q14 financial report is not as optimistic as the market expects, the stock price may be pulled back in the short term. Initially included in the scope of the study, a Buy rating was given with a target price of RMB 23. It is calculated by averaging 5.0 times 2015 estimated net value per share (revenue return on assets 21) and 30.0 times estimated earnings per share in 2015 (up 36% year-on-year). Although Sanan Optoelectronics' current valuation seems to be on the high side, in fact, its stock price corresponding to the P/B and P/E ratio is located in the mid-cycle average, and the 2015 ROE is expected to reach a seven-year high, earnings per share. It will also grow substantially.
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