The new energy bus field sees a policy of eating, and it immediately falls into a frozen state after subsidizing the retreat. Affected by the new energy subsidy retreat policy, in 2017 pure electric buses ended up with sales of 89,000 units, a drop of 23%. The performance of related companies showed a sharp decline. According to the Economic Observer reporter's statistics, as of March 27, in the announced performance, the car company's passenger car segment performance has plummeted, only a few achieve better results.
In 2017, including BYD (56.300, 0.31, 0.55%), Zhongtong Bus (9.460, 0.05, 0.53%), Ankai Bus (6.650, 0.13, 1.99%), Shuguang Shares (7.850, -0.04, -0.51%) The performance of many vehicle-listed companies including passenger car business, such as Foton Motors (2.520, 0.01, 0.40%), has experienced a substantial decline. Among them, the net profit of Zhongtong Bus dropped by 78%, which was the second consecutive year when Zhongtong Bus fell sharply. The Economic Observer reported earlier that it was the first to point out that the 6-8-meter electric bus was the worst-hit area for companies to illegally withdraw subsidies. However, in addition to illegally taking out subsidies, the ultra-high subsidies for electric buses have resulted in corporate performance. There have been various "abnormal" developments. Zhongtong Bus is one of the typical cases.
However, there are still a few car companies that have withstood the test in the face of subsidies, such as BYD and Yutong buses (22.360, -0.17, -0.75%). Although both profits have been affected, they have achieved through the development of international markets and improved product structure. Minimize the impact. Golden Dragon Motors (13.120, 0.28, 2.18%) achieved a change from loss to profit, but this was mainly due to the reasons for subsidy credits: On the one hand, its subsidiary Suzhou Jinlong Company resumed the production of new energy passenger cars. Production and sales, and the compliance vehicle that was sold and licensed by the subsidiary between January 2016 and September 2016 can apply for central government subsidy income, and this part of the revenue has been confirmed; on the other hand, it is expected that the loss of guarantee will be reversed. The provision for impairment of accounts receivable for impairment testing was reversed, resulting in a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of approximately RMB 70 million.
The performance of the company's annual report exposes the status quo of excessive overdraft and policy madness in this market. In this context, the essence of the market's profit-making becomes more obvious. Some small "game players" began to withdraw under the influence of subsidy and declining slopes, and the production and sales volume experienced a dramatic collapse. Take Shuguang shares as an example. In the first two months of 2018, it produced only one new energy bus with zero sales. And more companies choose to set off overseas markets and accelerate the transition to the logistics vehicle market. “After the carnival, how new energy vehicles will continue to develop and finding the market will be the major problem in the future.†A new energy car manufacturer told the Economic Observer. In 2018, the market outlook is not optimistic. “In order to pursue high subsidies and catch up with the last train, the new energy bus field has actually appeared in advance consumption phenomenon.†Xie Guangyao, chief editor of the first commercial vehicle network, said. The industry expects to produce and sell 70,000-7.5 million pure-electric passenger cars in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of more than 15%.
Once again the performance of the collective collapse
The subsidies directly affected the vehicle companies that included new energy buses. According to the 2017 annual report of BYD (0002594.SZ) released on March 28, BYD's auto business revenue was 56.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%; the gross profit rate of related products was 3.93% lower than that of 2016. The subsidy for each pure electric bus dropped by 135,000 yuan. This has a relatively large impact on the profitability of BYD's new energy auto business. In the annual report, BYD estimates the net profit for the first quarter of 2018, with a net profit range of approximately RMB 50 million to RMB 150 million, which is expected to decline by 75.2% from the same period last year to 91.8%.
Yutong Bus (600066.SH) is currently the largest shareholder in China's pure electric bus market, accounting for 23%. In 2017, its production and sales data showed that production and sales fell by 5.29% and 4.82%, respectively, of which sales of medium-sized passenger cars fell by more than 15%. In terms of revenue from net income, the third quarter 2017 report released by Yutong Bus shows that from January to September 2017, operating revenue was 18.895 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.902 billion yuan. The year-on-year decrease was 16.43%. If there is no large amount of revenue, its 2017 earnings will keep falling.
The days of other bus companies are even worse. Zhongtong Bus (603559.SH) reported in the third quarter of 2017 that in the first three quarters, the company’s operating income was 4.505 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.68% year-on-year; net profit was 122 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.2183%. It is expected to be owned by the listed company’s shareholders in 2017. The net profit amounted to RMB 170 million to RMB 230 million, a year-on-year change of -70.98% to -6.775%, and the average net profit growth rate of the auto vehicle industry was -5.19%.
In addition, Ankai Bus (000868.SZ) disclosed its annual report on the evening of March 20. The company achieved operating revenue of 5.449 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 14.54%; net profit loss was 230 million yuan. The company's profit for the same period last year was 51.35 million yuan. In 2017, the company achieved sales of 8,717 passenger cars, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. After restoring new energy subsidies, operating income decreased by 18.25% year-on-year. Due to the impairment provision for accrued receivables, the company suffered a loss in 2017.
Except for the operating losses of bus companies, the risk of recovering receivables from sales of new energy buses has already begun to be exposed. The amount of provision for bad debts of accounts receivable for Ankai bus in 2017 was RMB 166 million, provision for bad debts of other receivables was RMB 48 million, and total provision for bad debts of receivables was RMB 214 million. As of the end of 2017, Ankai passenger car receivables (the sum of accounts receivable and other receivables) was 4.599 billion yuan. In the same period, the company's net assets was only 1.14 billion yuan, and the receivables were 4.03 times of the company's net assets. .
The huge amount of receivables not only increased the company’s impairment pressure, but also brought heavy financial pressure. According to the financial report, in 2017, the financial cost of Ankai Bus was RMB 72.49 million. In 2015, this figure was only RMB 11.81 million. In two years, the increase in financial expenses was as high as 513.8%.
At present, many new energy bus companies have huge accounts receivable. As of the end of 2017, the accounts receivable of Yutong Bus was RMB 15.805 billion; the accounts receivable of Zhongtong Bus was RMB 5.542 billion; the accounts receivable of Jinlong Bus was RMB 10.229 billion. The accounts receivable of the three car companies accounted for 119.07%, 270.25% and 204.27% of the net assets for the same period respectively. The depreciation of assets of a large amount of accounts receivable may become the killer of the performance of new energy bus companies. In this case, BYD, the second largest in the market, has the largest amount of receivables among the many new energy bus companies, which is as high as RMB 51.677 billion, and the pressure is very high.
In response, Xie Guangyao said in an interview with the Economic Observer reporter that when a bus company purchases a passenger car, the car company usually pays only 30% of the down payment for the bus company, and then repays the mortgage. This is an unavoidable reality. This leads to pressure on the bus company side.
The formation of new energy bus oligopoly market
The good day is over. With the change of national subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, the new energy subsidy will shift from the “Preferential System†to R&D. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance had previously stated clearly that subsidies for new energy vehicles will continue to raise barriers to entry into the list of recommended models and products, so that products with advanced technology and high market acceptance can receive financial subsidies, and on the contrary, they will receive no subsidies. Promote enterprises to accelerate technological progress and promote superior enterprises to become stronger and stronger.
In comparison, in the future, Yutong Mode and BYD mode companies that have the right to speak with technical standards and parameters will be more likely to receive financial subsidies. The obvious trend is that the oligopoly market pattern for new energy vehicles has been formed. In addition to several major leading enterprises, accelerating the transformation is almost a problem many small and medium-sized enterprises must face in 2018—with the subsidy amount of new energy buses declining. With the improvement of subsidies and technical standards, many new energy bus companies that do not have core competitiveness have accelerated their transformation. At the same time, however, most companies will not withdraw from this market due to scarcity of qualifications.
Some changes are taking place. First of all, some bus companies began to shift their focus to mitigate market risks. Some small game players began to withdraw from the impact of subsidy and declining slopes. Production and sales volumes have plummeted dramatically. Taking Shuguang as an example, the production and sales news released by Shuguang Co., Ltd. (600303.SH) in 2018 showed that in the first two months of 2018, the company produced one new energy bus, which was down by 99.21% compared with 127 vehicles in the same period last year; In the same period, sales of new energy buses were zero. In the future, Shuguang will focus its efforts on the main product, Huanghai pickup.
In addition, in 2017, some companies shifted their focus to new energy logistics vehicles. Such as Nanjing Jinlong, Zhongtong Bus, Jiangsu Jiulong, Yantai Shu Chi and so on. “The attractiveness of foreign capital in the new energy bus market is constantly weakening, but it is another branch of the new energy commercial vehicle market – the appeal of new energy logistics vehicles is increasing.†Xie Guangyao said.
Xie Guangyao said that taking Geely's commercial vehicle as an example, when it first entered the market, it was also ambitious and hoped to make achievements in the field of passenger cars, commercial vehicles and electric logistics vehicles. But now, the proportion of its electric logistics vehicles far exceeds that of passenger cars. "It is not that we want to withdraw from this market. It is the inclination of resources.
For leading companies, looking for new opportunities will be a strategic move in 2018. At present, the penetration rate of new energy buses in the first and second tier cities is relatively high, and the market is relatively mature. However, the third and fourth tier cities still have more room for development. In addition, bus companies headed by Yutong Bus and BYD are also exploring overseas markets such as Europe and the United States.
In 2017, in the area of ​​pure electric buses, Yutong Bus, BYD, Zhongtong Bus and Zhuhai Yinlong continued to maintain their status in the top four, with cumulative production of 20,000 pure electric buses, 127,000 vehicles, 7,000 vehicles and 6626 vehicles respectively. It was 22.6%, 14.4%, 7.9%, and 7.5%. At the same time, Shanghai Shenlong and CRRC Electric have become dark horses in the industry, and their momentum is fiercer. The controlling shareholder of Shanghai Shenlong is the listed company Dongxu Optoelectronics (7.740, 0.02, 0.26%) (000413.SZ), while CRRC Electric is backed by China CRRC (10.050, -0.08, -0.79%) (601,766). .SZ).
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