The dry weather in Asia has caused tight supply in the international rubber market, and tire manufacturers have been rushing to buy new cars that are rapidly rising. The price of natural rubber in the world continues to rise, setting a record high again. Analysts believe that the rise in domestic rubber futures volume yesterday was only the start of compensatory growth. It is expected that there will be more room for the market outlook.
At yesterday's close, the price of Shanghai Tianjiao futures soared, pushing the highs in recent years. Two million lots were traded throughout the day, and positions increased by 7,896 lots to 272,434 lots. The main September contract closed at 25,390 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan, or 2.26%.
TOCOM rubber futures have recently risen and fell. The benchmark September RSS3 contract closed at 320.7 yen/kg, down 5.9 yen. However, the price of Tokyo rubber, which is denominated in U.S. dollars, has surpassed the historical maximum price of 356.9 yen that was set before the end of the economic crisis in June 2008.
At the same time, the price of rubber cargo in recent months in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia hit a record high of more than US$3.0 per kg. Thailand's RSS3 rubber was traded at approximately US$3.50 per kg. Indonesian SIR20 rubber was reported at 1.50-1.51 US cents per pound on Monday. Malaysian SMR20 rubber shipments in recent months ranged from US$3.365 to 3.405 per kg.
The shortage of supply caused by the drought prompted tire manufacturers to rush to purchase rubber, and the decline in natural rubber stocks on the two major exchanges in Asia was noticeably accelerated. According to the latest data from the Japan Rubber Trade Association, as of March 20, the inventory of Japanese natural rubber stocks fell by 10.7% compared to March 10, to 7,222 tons. According to the latest data released in the previous period, during the week of April 2, the inventory of natural rubber delivery warehouses continued to decline. Compared with the week of March 26, inventory fell by 11,063 tons to 63,157 tons.
At present, tire manufacturers face a significant increase in car sales and tire demand. According to statistics, benefiting from the government subsidy policy, according to the China National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association forecast, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in China in March will increase by about 40% year-on-year, which is approximately 840,000 vehicles, which is a month-on-month decline.
In the international market, sales of new cars in France rose by 17.9% in March. In March, new car sales in Spain were 124,800, an increase of 63.1% year-on-year. In addition, the sales volume of cars in Japan in March was 674,500, which was a year-on-year increase of 24%. Benefiting from the sales promotion policy, US auto sales in March rose 24% year-on-year to 1.066 million vehicles. In March, Italian new car sales increased by 19.6% year-on-year. In March, car sales in Brazil rose by 30.33% year-on-year, a record high.
At present, the domestic natural rubber spot price of 25,000 yuan / ton has been close to the spot level before the financial crisis, high prices have had a certain degree of inhibition of consumer demand. Domestic and international tire factories have increased tire prices by 5 to 10% in recent days in response to rising raw material prices. The price increase of finished products, to a certain extent, can help digest the pressure of rising raw materials.
Jing Zhengyu, an analyst of Jingyi Futures, believes that rubber spot prices at home and abroad have been rising, and Hujiao's stocks have dropped sharply for nine consecutive weeks. At the same time, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate with higher crude oil prices, and rubber is still rising mainly during the early tapping season. In the long run, Hujiao still has a high chance of innovation. It is expected that the high point of rubber in the whole year will appear in the second quarter or the fourth quarter.
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