According to the General Administration of Customs' statistics, exports in May increased by 1% year-on-year, after the market expected an average of 6.8%.
Previously, SAFE's restrictions on foreign exchange arbitrage through the use of false trade had led to the suppression of false exports. At the same time, the higher base last May was also one of the main factors. With the escalating trade frictions, the appreciation of the renminbi, the squeeze on corporate profitability, rising labor costs, and excessive tax pressure, Chinese foreign trade companies are suffering.
In the global central bank's quantitative easing and interest-rate cuts at the beginning of this year, the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract arbitrage funds to inflow through trade channels, causing imports and exports to exceed expectations in the first four months of this year. Since the second quarter, the issue of cross-border capital inflows and export inflows has attracted the attention of the regulators and has gradually taken up the issue.
The No. 20 document issued by the SAFE in early May clearly stipulates that companies that do not have a serious mismatch between capital flows and cargo flows or that have large inflows should send a risk reminder letter and require that the situation be explained within 10 working days; Companies that make reasonable interpretations of materials adopt strict supervision of Type B companies.
At the same time, the export data hit a record high in May last year, and technical reasons also led to a year-on-year increase in export data this month. In May 2012, China’s export volume reached 181.1 billion U.S. dollars, a record high, and the growth rate increased from 4.9% in April to 15.3%.
However, from the perspective of the recent economic recovery in the United States, the external environment of China's exports has indeed improved. The previously released official manufacturing PMI data for May showed that the new orders index rose to 51.8 in May from 49 in April, and new export orders also rose from 47 to 48.5. Benefiting from the improvement of orders, the production index in the PMI sub-item rebounded from 50.5 in April to 52.6.
HSBC's PMI data, which focused on small and medium-sized enterprises, showed that export orders for the month rose from 48.4 in April to 48.9, showing a slight improvement, but they are still shrinking. It shows that the operating conditions of small and medium-sized processing companies are still difficult.
The appreciation of the renminbi squeezes corporate profitability, and the recent appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is very clear. Compared with the sharp depreciation of the yen against the US dollar and the weakening of most other Asian currencies, the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise steadily in the past two months. The continuous appreciation of the renminbi will further squeeze the profitability of exporters.
The recent rapid appreciation of the renminbi's median price began in late March and early April this year. So far it has continuously broken through the 6.20, 6.19, 6.18 mark. Since this year, the renminbi has appreciated by nearly 1.7% against the U.S. dollar. Compared with other major currencies, the magnitude of change is not large, but it has exceeded the full-year appreciation rate in 2012 and is in stark contrast to the trend of other Asian currencies.
At the same time, the real effective exchange rate index for the yuan in April this year was 115.24, up 0.88% from March. This is the seventh consecutive month that the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi has risen, hitting a new record since its historical record.
2013 first quarter construction machinery import and export data
In 2012, the total export value of construction machinery was 18.224 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 14.48%. In 2012, China’s construction machinery products had 24 kinds of goods exceeding 200 million U.S. dollars, and the total export value of 24 kinds of goods reached 15.683 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 86.11% of the total export value. Although the export of construction machinery industry still maintained an upward trend, the growth rate dropped sharply, with the growth rate falling by 20.3 percentage points from 2011.
With the continuous release of sales data in the first quarter of 2013, the development of the construction machinery industry has become more and more clear. According to statistics, in March 2013, the construction machinery industry completed export delivery value of 2.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.73%. From January to March, the total value of export delivery of the national machinery engineering industry was 6.964 billion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 3.51% year-on-year.
In terms of imports, the total amount of imported construction machinery in the first quarter was US$622 million, a decrease of 40.8% from 2012, and accounted for 57.12% of total imports. Among them, 2,630 excavators were imported, and the import volume was 239 million U.S. dollars, down 43.77% and 57.63% year-on-year respectively, which was a drop of more than the decline in the total number of construction machinery. However, the excavator's imports accounted for 22% of the total import volume, making it the highest proportion of the total weight of construction machinery. In addition, imports of more products also include loaders, bulldozers, pavers, truck cranes, tractors and so on. The products that have fallen more in imports are tower cranes, crawler cranes, concrete pump trucks, elevators and escalators, other cranes, pile drivers, rotary drilling rigs, and manual vans.
The amount of parts and components imported in the first quarter was 467 million U.S. dollars, a decrease of 37.3% from 2012, accounting for 42.88% of the total import volume. The proportion of construction machinery parts in the total imports is relatively high, which shows that China's construction machinery industry has a higher degree of foreign dependence.
In terms of exports, the total amount of exports in the first quarter was US$3.03 billion, an increase of 5.85% over 2012, accounting for 70.2% of total exports. Among them, the products with larger export growth include excavators, pavers, forklifts, elevators and escalators, other truck cranes, tractors, pile drivers, engineering rigs, concrete pumps, and concrete mixer trucks.
The export value of parts and components was US$1.285 billion, accounting for 29.8% of the total exports, which was a decrease of 7.11% from 2012.
Excavators, loaders, truck cranes, forklifts, road rollers, elevators, escalators and parts and components are still the main export products of the industry. In the first quarter, they exported a total of US$3.098 billion, accounting for 71.8% of the total exports of construction machinery.
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