It is now in the season of spring farming. Compared with the same period in 2007, the current price of urea in all parts of China has increased by an average of 10% to 15%; ammonium bicarbonate has increased by about 30%; ammonium chloride has increased by more than 50%; and ammonium sulfate has risen to 100% due to the increase in sulfur price. %; Phosphate fertilizer price growth rate is also great, DAP increased by 100%, and monoammonium phosphate rose by about 90%. Due to the large number of exports, some products are currently out of stock, some companies have stopped offering prices, and some regions have no market value. Judging from the market conditions in the country, this year is the year in which fertiliser prices have risen the most and supply has been tight.
Judging from the reality of this year, different provinces and regions in the country have different degrees of rural young and middle-aged workers to increase the number of workers to increase year by year, and the actual area of ​​cultivated land is decreasing year by year. Why is the supply in the domestic market still tight in this situation, and the fertilizer prices are still like the dislocation of the wild horses? Industry experts believe that this is mainly based on the following three reasons.
First, the price of raw materials has risen, production costs have risen, and fertilizer prices have continued to rise. Due to the global energy supply shortage, the prices of main raw materials for fertilizer production have risen to varying degrees. In March, the price of coal for fertilizer production in Shandong, Hebei, and other provinces was close to or exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. At the Natural Gas Coordination Conference recently held by the Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, 30 chemical fertilizer production companies also reported that the cost of gasifiers and fertilizer companies has been rising due to the shortage of gas supply, and the increase in prices of other raw materials and transportation costs. At the same time, the price of sulphur, which is the main raw material for compound fertilizers, has also increased from about $54/tonne at the beginning of last year to the current 720 to 750 USD/tonne. If the consumption of 0.5 tons of sulfur per ton of diammonium phosphate is calculated, the production cost of diammonium phosphate in China will increase by more than 2,000 yuan per ton last year.
Due to the continuous rise in raw material prices, in early April, compound fertilizer manufacturers across the country conducted a new round of price increases. Judging from the situation in Guizhou, the high-level concentration of compound fertilizer purchased by merchants in the wholesale market increased by 1,000 to 1,500 yuan per ton compared to the same period of last year, and the cumulative low-level compound fertilizer increased by 400 to 600 yuan per ton. At the same time, the merchant's wholesale price is lower than the current factory's delivery price, and some even upside down more than 100 yuan / ton.
Secondly, the high prices of export-driven and international fertilizer prices have, to a certain extent, pushed up the price of fertilizers in the domestic market. Taking urea as an example, in 2007, China's urea export volume was 5.25 million tons, an increase of 284.27% compared to 2006; the average selling price was 281.63 USD/ton, an increase of 17.88 from the average sales price of 238.91 USD/ton in 2006. %.
Again, the large-scale freezing disaster that occurred in southern China in the beginning of the year caused power companies to cut off power and cut coal many times, which caused all kinds of fertilizer supplies to be tight during the spring plowing this year. The annual demand for DAP in spring is about 2.4 million tons in China, and it needs to save 2 million tons to meet the demand for spring plowing. However, a large amount of exports last year consumed a large amount of diammonium phosphate. During the Spring Festival, the southern ice and snow disaster also inhibited normal production, resulting in very tight supply of DAP.
At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of chemical fertilizers in the north-eastern region is relatively serious, and the fertilizer consumption in the region is mainly based on external adjustments. Last year's large export volume resulted in the storage of urea and diammonium phosphate in most regions less than 20% of previous years. With the tight supply of urea and diammonium phosphate, this year's potash fertilizer import negotiations have still not been confirmed. Merchants are basically holding goods for sale and are not willing to ship easily, making the supply of spring potash fertilizer tight. Due to the price increase of sulfur, the price of potassium sulphate has also increased significantly. At present, the price quoted by various companies has exceeded 4,000 yuan/ton.
Due to the tight supply of compound fertilizers at home and abroad, the price of compound fertilizer in the first half of this year may be difficult to fall back. However, urea prices may fall back as local transportation conditions improve, fertilizer seasons change, and resources are reconfigured. According to relevant news, the country may raise the urea export tariff in May. If this argument is put into effect, it is expected to curb the rise in urea prices to some extent.
Judging from the reality of this year, different provinces and regions in the country have different degrees of rural young and middle-aged workers to increase the number of workers to increase year by year, and the actual area of ​​cultivated land is decreasing year by year. Why is the supply in the domestic market still tight in this situation, and the fertilizer prices are still like the dislocation of the wild horses? Industry experts believe that this is mainly based on the following three reasons.
First, the price of raw materials has risen, production costs have risen, and fertilizer prices have continued to rise. Due to the global energy supply shortage, the prices of main raw materials for fertilizer production have risen to varying degrees. In March, the price of coal for fertilizer production in Shandong, Hebei, and other provinces was close to or exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. At the Natural Gas Coordination Conference recently held by the Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, 30 chemical fertilizer production companies also reported that the cost of gasifiers and fertilizer companies has been rising due to the shortage of gas supply, and the increase in prices of other raw materials and transportation costs. At the same time, the price of sulphur, which is the main raw material for compound fertilizers, has also increased from about $54/tonne at the beginning of last year to the current 720 to 750 USD/tonne. If the consumption of 0.5 tons of sulfur per ton of diammonium phosphate is calculated, the production cost of diammonium phosphate in China will increase by more than 2,000 yuan per ton last year.
Due to the continuous rise in raw material prices, in early April, compound fertilizer manufacturers across the country conducted a new round of price increases. Judging from the situation in Guizhou, the high-level concentration of compound fertilizer purchased by merchants in the wholesale market increased by 1,000 to 1,500 yuan per ton compared to the same period of last year, and the cumulative low-level compound fertilizer increased by 400 to 600 yuan per ton. At the same time, the merchant's wholesale price is lower than the current factory's delivery price, and some even upside down more than 100 yuan / ton.
Secondly, the high prices of export-driven and international fertilizer prices have, to a certain extent, pushed up the price of fertilizers in the domestic market. Taking urea as an example, in 2007, China's urea export volume was 5.25 million tons, an increase of 284.27% compared to 2006; the average selling price was 281.63 USD/ton, an increase of 17.88 from the average sales price of 238.91 USD/ton in 2006. %.
Again, the large-scale freezing disaster that occurred in southern China in the beginning of the year caused power companies to cut off power and cut coal many times, which caused all kinds of fertilizer supplies to be tight during the spring plowing this year. The annual demand for DAP in spring is about 2.4 million tons in China, and it needs to save 2 million tons to meet the demand for spring plowing. However, a large amount of exports last year consumed a large amount of diammonium phosphate. During the Spring Festival, the southern ice and snow disaster also inhibited normal production, resulting in very tight supply of DAP.
At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of chemical fertilizers in the north-eastern region is relatively serious, and the fertilizer consumption in the region is mainly based on external adjustments. Last year's large export volume resulted in the storage of urea and diammonium phosphate in most regions less than 20% of previous years. With the tight supply of urea and diammonium phosphate, this year's potash fertilizer import negotiations have still not been confirmed. Merchants are basically holding goods for sale and are not willing to ship easily, making the supply of spring potash fertilizer tight. Due to the price increase of sulfur, the price of potassium sulphate has also increased significantly. At present, the price quoted by various companies has exceeded 4,000 yuan/ton.
Due to the tight supply of compound fertilizers at home and abroad, the price of compound fertilizer in the first half of this year may be difficult to fall back. However, urea prices may fall back as local transportation conditions improve, fertilizer seasons change, and resources are reconfigured. According to relevant news, the country may raise the urea export tariff in May. If this argument is put into effect, it is expected to curb the rise in urea prices to some extent.
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