The domestic monetary tightening, the economic slowdown or even recession of foreign countries (mainly the United States), and the rapid rise in various domestic production costs (mainly the cost of steel products) have become the three biggest factors that may affect the construction machinery industry. It is the panic of these three factors that caused investors to continue to withdraw from this sector in recent days, and the sector index continued to fall.
However, we believe that the development of the construction machinery industry mainly depends on the growth of real estate and infrastructure investment. The domestic monetary tightening, the temporary slowdown in foreign economies, and rising domestic production costs will not fundamentally jeopardize the steady growth of real estate and infrastructure investment at home and abroad.
The rapid growth of the domestic construction machinery industry will not change in the longer term. Given that the construction machinery's domestic market and foreign markets still have fairly good growth prospects, and that monetary tightening and steel price increases have a relatively limited impact on the industry, we maintain an "attractive" investment rating.
Limited impact of monetary tightening
The main impacts of monetary tightening on the construction machinery industry include sales and production. Among them, due to the low dependence of construction machinery companies on the credit of financial institutions, the impact of monetary tightening on sales is mainly on the sales side. In general, for economies with large indirect financing ratios, the faster the annual increase in new loans by financial institutions (or the faster the year-end loan balance growth), the faster the economic growth.
In 2008, the credit growth of financial institutions may not decline sharply. The core of macroeconomic regulation and control in 2008 was monetary tightening. The main point of the monetary tightening policy is that the total amount of new loans from financial institutions must not exceed the total amount of new loans for the whole year of 2007 (3.63 trillion yuan in 2007). According to the current industry's hunger for credit funds and the financial adequacy of financial institutions, the total amount of new loans in 2008 is likely to be the same as in 2007. From this calculation, the credit balance of financial institutions in 2008 may grow at a rate of 13.8%, not significantly lower than the growth rate in 2007 (16.1%). In other words, it is unlikely that the credit amount in 2004 and 2005 will fall sharply. Case. Therefore, this monetary tightening has an impact on construction machinery, but it has little impact.
Export growth rate remains high
In recent years, the domestic construction machinery industry has experienced rapid growth in exports, and its compound annual growth rate reached 64% in 2002-2007. At present, the export destination of domestic construction machinery products has reached 198 countries or regions, of which the United States has the largest market share, accounting for about 12%, followed by Japan, accounting for about 10%.
In 2008, the global economy is expected to slow down, but it is expected that the growth rate of domestic construction machinery exports will remain at a high level in 2008 and the following years. First of all, at present, the domestic market for construction machinery products accounts for a small amount of the total market capacity of other markets except China, and the export potential is still very large. At present, the share of domestic construction machinery products in the global market is still very low. In 2006, the capacity of other markets in the world except China totaled about US$142.4 billion, which is about eight times that of China. Among them, China exports about 5 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.5% of the total capacity of other markets. Therefore, China's export of construction machinery products has great potential.
Second, the global economy in 2008 may be the lowest phase in the next few years, and it is expected to begin recovery in 2009. The year 2008 may be the lowest phase of the global economy. The World Bank predicts that the growth rate of the global economy in 2008 will fall from 3.6% in 2007 to 3.3%, but it will rebound to 3.6% in 2009. The Fed recently predicted that the U.S. economic growth rate in 2008 will be 1.0%-2.2%, which is lower than in 2007, but it will rebound to 1.8%-3.2% in 2009.
However, we believe that the development of the construction machinery industry mainly depends on the growth of real estate and infrastructure investment. The domestic monetary tightening, the temporary slowdown in foreign economies, and rising domestic production costs will not fundamentally jeopardize the steady growth of real estate and infrastructure investment at home and abroad.
The rapid growth of the domestic construction machinery industry will not change in the longer term. Given that the construction machinery's domestic market and foreign markets still have fairly good growth prospects, and that monetary tightening and steel price increases have a relatively limited impact on the industry, we maintain an "attractive" investment rating.
Limited impact of monetary tightening
The main impacts of monetary tightening on the construction machinery industry include sales and production. Among them, due to the low dependence of construction machinery companies on the credit of financial institutions, the impact of monetary tightening on sales is mainly on the sales side. In general, for economies with large indirect financing ratios, the faster the annual increase in new loans by financial institutions (or the faster the year-end loan balance growth), the faster the economic growth.
In 2008, the credit growth of financial institutions may not decline sharply. The core of macroeconomic regulation and control in 2008 was monetary tightening. The main point of the monetary tightening policy is that the total amount of new loans from financial institutions must not exceed the total amount of new loans for the whole year of 2007 (3.63 trillion yuan in 2007). According to the current industry's hunger for credit funds and the financial adequacy of financial institutions, the total amount of new loans in 2008 is likely to be the same as in 2007. From this calculation, the credit balance of financial institutions in 2008 may grow at a rate of 13.8%, not significantly lower than the growth rate in 2007 (16.1%). In other words, it is unlikely that the credit amount in 2004 and 2005 will fall sharply. Case. Therefore, this monetary tightening has an impact on construction machinery, but it has little impact.
Export growth rate remains high
In recent years, the domestic construction machinery industry has experienced rapid growth in exports, and its compound annual growth rate reached 64% in 2002-2007. At present, the export destination of domestic construction machinery products has reached 198 countries or regions, of which the United States has the largest market share, accounting for about 12%, followed by Japan, accounting for about 10%.
In 2008, the global economy is expected to slow down, but it is expected that the growth rate of domestic construction machinery exports will remain at a high level in 2008 and the following years. First of all, at present, the domestic market for construction machinery products accounts for a small amount of the total market capacity of other markets except China, and the export potential is still very large. At present, the share of domestic construction machinery products in the global market is still very low. In 2006, the capacity of other markets in the world except China totaled about US$142.4 billion, which is about eight times that of China. Among them, China exports about 5 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.5% of the total capacity of other markets. Therefore, China's export of construction machinery products has great potential.
Second, the global economy in 2008 may be the lowest phase in the next few years, and it is expected to begin recovery in 2009. The year 2008 may be the lowest phase of the global economy. The World Bank predicts that the growth rate of the global economy in 2008 will fall from 3.6% in 2007 to 3.3%, but it will rebound to 3.6% in 2009. The Fed recently predicted that the U.S. economic growth rate in 2008 will be 1.0%-2.2%, which is lower than in 2007, but it will rebound to 1.8%-3.2% in 2009.
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