From the “Five-Year Plan†to the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, the Chinese government’s investment in new energy vehicles has grown from 800 million yuan to 5 billion yuan, involving more than 200 automakers, suppliers, and research institutes. It can be said that the new energy vehicle has become a new "national sports car construction."
The auto market forecast company CSM last week thrown out a Chinese investigation and forecast report on new energy vehicles, just as if it had cast a heavy bomb in the industry.
The basic judgment of CSM is: “New energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, will have a long transition time.†And its medium-term forecast for the Chinese electric vehicle market is: By 2015, China’s hybrid and pure electric passenger vehicles. The production and sales volume (excluding non-road vehicles and commercial vehicles) will exceed 100,000 units, which will account for about 1% of the entire Chinese passenger vehicle market. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles will remain at around 20,000 units.
According to Zhang Yu, chief forecaster of CSM's automotive market in Greater China, this research report is an extensive interview with CSM on many experts in the automotive, petroleum, electric power, and electrochemistry industries. Based on the actual capabilities of OEMs and suppliers, combined with the characteristics of CSM's current and next five years' domestic and foreign brands' all new energy and electric vehicle models and off-line schedules, it took one year to complete.
Zhang Yu believes that even if the price of oil does not exceed 150 U.S. dollars by 2020, pure electric vehicles are only a supplement to traditional internal combustion engine cars and hybrid models.
Reporter: In the new energy strategy plan announced by the Chinese government, in the next three years, new energy vehicles will reach a capacity of 500,000 units. However, CSM predicts that 100,000 hybrid and pure electric vehicles will be produced and sold in 2015, of which only 20,000 will be sold by electric vehicles. What is the reason for the disparity between the two?
Zhang Yu: In the policy, only the production capacity but not the output is mentioned, and hybrid power is included. Hybrid power includes full mix, medium mix, and micro mix. If the micro-mixing is also regarded as a new energy vehicle, the future volume will be considerable, because many traditional models are using micro-mix as an energy-saving standard technology. You will see the installation of micro-mixes in all BMW models in Europe in the future, and the possibility of standardization in China is also great. However, the definition in the CSM database is not to use micro-models as new energy vehicles. China's national definition may be to use micro-mixing as an ordinary hybrid car.
Reporter: Can you say that China's auto companies are skipping hybrid power to directly develop pure electric vehicles, which is a shortcut in the new energy field?
Zhang Yu: Gasoline hybrid power still retains a set of traditional internal combustion engines and transmissions. This is a short board that many of our domestic companies are not good at, so it is natural for many domestic companies to look into pure electric vehicles. Just as cellular mobile technology directly eliminates program-controlled fixed-telephone networks in many backward countries, the ultimate goal of pure electric cars is to directly skip the high-performance internal combustion engines and mechanical transmissions that China's auto industry is not good at, in order to occupy new commanding heights.
Reporter: Only investing in the development of electric vehicle technology should bring more efficient results. Or is it compared with the car companies in Europe and the United States, the domestic car companies are more light?
Zhang Yu: According to the more optimistic forecast for electric cars, by 2020 China's electric vehicles will reach 20% of new car sales, for example, 2 million vehicles, and this 2 million vehicles will obviously not be enjoyed by only one company. The production mode of electric vehicles seems to be different from that of traditional models. The core technologies of batteries are mastered by some large-scale battery manufacturers, and unlike the engines, the technologies are in the hands of automakers. Once one day battery technology matures, automakers can buy batteries to assemble electric vehicles, and their 100 years of accumulation in traditional cars will make this process faster. However, companies that do not have accumulated traditional models will not have enough batteries. . You can't imagine that a person who buys an expensive electric car will have no requirement on the quality of the car's major systems. Chassis, body, safety, interior and exterior parts all need to be accumulated to be good, and naturally not because of the battery motor.
Reporter: Where are the main obstacles in the promotion of electric vehicles?
Zhang Yu: In fact, there are too many links involved in electric vehicles, and it can be said that the difficulties are numerous. For example, building a fast charging station involves the grid and the government granting land. Setting up a charging power source in a residential area involves the interests of developers, property companies and the grid. Power companies investing in rapid charging equipment and taking large amounts of land have to invest in advance. How long does it take for charging to recover the investment?
China's cities also often lack electricity in the existing state of power supply and demand. If electricity supply and demand are intensified due to the large-scale use of electric vehicles, the price of electricity will rise, which will trigger the entire society to denounce the new “crimes†of the auto industry.
Reporter: Can battery technology achieve major breakthroughs in the short term?
Zhang Yu: Battery technology is not a technology that can break through quickly. It is not a year or two since the bottleneck of electric vehicle technology. Only when several of its basic characteristics can be satisfied at the same time, can it be commercialized on a large scale. But these basic characteristics are not so easy to do. The battery's energy density, safety, charging speed, and cost are several factors that constrain each other.
I think that the domestic battery now needs a considerable amount of time to break through its bottleneck. The reality in China is that even if the technology breaks down, there is still a problem of mass production and product consistency, so it takes time, and it is possible for 10 to 20 years. Although the electric car is a good direction, if the transition time is too long, the day when the company that only focused on the electric car can hold on to see the victory can be questioned.
Reporter: If the battery technology is really mature, will the structure of China's auto consumption change?
Zhang Yu: This depends on the future of oil prices. If it's less than $150, electric cars are just one of many models. At most, it's a good complement. However, if it reaches 200-300 US dollars, the technology of electric vehicles will also mature, and the situation will change greatly. Electric vehicles can become the mainstream of automobile consumption. In fact, as long as the electric vehicle can become a good supplement and can deter the price of oil, its credit has already been great. To make a joke, if the two monopolized industries of oil and electricity form a kind of “terror balanceâ€, it is naturally good for consumers. Of course, if the policy support can reach a scale of several billion, it will play a greater role in promoting the maturity of new energy.
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