The machine tool industry needs to change the growth mode

After experiencing what was considered to be a “poor market” in 2012, the 13th Beijing International Machine Tool Fair undoubtedly attracted more attention, and the appearance of hot scenes was normal, at least from the level of exhibitors’ enthusiasm. For those industry observers, the different technologies and product information that can be revealed in this exhibition should be the focus of attention.

Just as there are professionals who will be present at the JIMTOF machine tool show in Japan, the summary of the high-end machine tool function trends will be summarized as follows: shortening the processing time (J); distinctive capabilities (I); unmanned control (M); Functions (T); Large-scale (O); Complicated (F) and other six features are the same. It is believed that the world's top machine tool companies will bring high-end products exhibiting to their domestic counterparts. This will not only attract the attention of the viewers and users, but also provide the display capability and improve the quality of the exhibition. However, with the global economic recovery fluctuating and the domestic demand market undergoing significant changes, for most exhibitors, this exhibition will strive to realize some spot transactions to ease the severe order hunger and thirst. It is imperative. After all, topics such as how to lead the development of machine tool technology have never been relevant. In the eyes of market participants, regardless of the outcome of this exhibition at the transaction level, it is difficult to change the domestic machine tool industry will often encounter "tight days" for a long period of time in the future. Just as the chairman of a machine tool company in Guangzhou said: “The kind of product that was produced in 2010 will not be sold for a happy time. It will only become a kind of beautiful memory. Today, only 2013 is expected to be a big year.”

The market environment has changed significantly. American prediction scientist Jeremy Rifkin said in his book "The Third Industrial Revolution": "We are in the final stages of the second industrial revolution and the petroleum century. This is a An unacceptably harsh reality, because this reality will force mankind to quickly transition to a new energy system and industrial model. Otherwise, human civilization will be in danger of disappearing." In his view, as emerging economies enter oil In the era, the increasing demand for oil has pushed up oil prices, causing oil prices in the world market to reach a record high of US$147 per barrel in July 2008, causing soaring prices, falling spending power and slowing global economy.

Whether or not this view is correct, it is easy for people to feel that, in addition to encountering hazy weather more frequently, the cost of production and living is indeed rising. For machine tools and tools companies, in addition to the rising prices of upstream raw materials and ancillary services, the pressure of rising labor costs is also very heavy. Many listed companies have indicated that they are facing increasingly heavy financial pressure in the performance announcement. When the value-added technology of the products cannot be realized more or the new products are used to lead the market to hedge and increase the cost of production, the “Waterloo” of the company’s performance is inevitable.

At present, new orders have been significantly reduced, capital occupation has risen sharply, manufacturing resources have been largely idle, and the contradiction between supply and demand is very prominent. This is likely to lead to further intensified market competition. If you are still dealing with a habitual "price war," the consequences for any business are serious.

There is always a limit to the growth of demand. Recently, some of the predictive views on the market for machine tools this year are common to the media. Some of them can even predict the degree of growth to one decimal place; others believe that the domestic machine tool industry will face “new opportunities” or “excellent opportunities” in 2013. In short, we hope to give a judgment that the market will recover in 2013. However, this may not even be able to appease the fragile mentality of the industry.

“Economy is a game of trust... This means that when the trust of the public is sufficient, the economy will prosper and the future will be protected; otherwise, the economy will decline and the prospects will be bleak.” The same applies to the industry.

In fact, the machine tool industry has had many opportunities in its own development.

Recently, it came into contact with a machine tool upstream company. According to relevant sources, a machine tool group with their ancillary services encountered great operational difficulties in 2012. Not only did thousands of contract workers have been laid off and laid off, but the start-up of enterprises was also seriously inadequate. A large number of suppliers were told at the year-end settlement that only receivable 25 percent discount would be able to get the receivables. The company providing the service has not been able to pay the debt due to the unacceptable service discount. In fact, not only the machine tool industry, but also the entire equipment manufacturing industry has been struggling in 2012. However, this seems to be only a qualitative one. Actually, it is not ugly on quantitative data.

According to statistics from the China Machinery Industry Federation, from January to December 2012, China's machine tool industry achieved total industrial output value of 798.15 billion yuan, an increase of 12.73% year-on-year; completed sales value of 775.496 billion yuan, an increase of 12.25% year-on-year; sales ratio was 97.11%.

In 2012, the export value of China's machine tool industry was 43.637 billion yuan, an increase of 9.79 percent year-on-year, a decrease of 8.42 percentage points from the same period of last year. Statistics show that the growth rate of the growth rate of sales value of the Chinese machine tool industry is more obvious. Among them, the growth rates of the cutting tool manufacturing and metal cutting machine tool manufacturing industries accounted for a relatively large decline. Compared with the same period of 2011, the growth rate fell by 31.18 and 15.28 percentage points respectively.

I believe that there will not be too many people who can clearly interpret the logic in the above data. Because it looks like 2011 is like a high growth year. If we continue to decipher, it will only make people more confused.

Aside from these discussions, a market of 800 billion yuan in size cannot be considered small.

After several decades of development efforts, the Chinese machine tool industry has experienced various development stages such as "Eighteen Arhats", reforms of state-owned enterprises, "grabbing of large and small enterprises," and creating "aircraft carriers." Now it has become the world's largest machine tool manufacturer. system. However, there has been no substantial change in its technical line, organizational structure, and development concepts for a long time. It should be said that the main production capacity of the domestic machine tool industry has long been dissociated from the mainstream of the development of the global machine tool industry. Focusing on the individual needs of users, professional and lean organizational structure, and unremitting innovation, and other characteristics, more are embodied in private enterprises. Although, they only occupy a very small amount of public resources.

The intersection of information technology and machine tool manufacturing technology enabled the world's first CNC lathe to be born in the United States in the 1950s. This signifies that the machine tool manufacturing industry has entered the age of CNC. China also developed the first CNC machine tool in the 1960s. Later, after the introduction of CNC technology during the "6th Five-Year Plan" period, the "Science and Technology Tackling" of the digestion and absorption and pursuit of autonomy during the "July 5" period was organized, including the recent "04 Special Project" and a series of actions. It should be said that the state attaches great importance to the numerical control of machine tools. To a certain extent, China's CNC technology and CNC industry have also made considerable achievements, at least from the statistical data can be proved. For example, from 1998 to 2004, the average annual growth rate of domestic production and consumption of CNC machine tools reached 39.3% and 34.9% respectively.

In fact, there is no need to be complacent about the above growth figures. This is actually the result of a natural evolution of the production level. In the past 30 years, all parties have invested countless resources in the development of numerical control technology. But what's the result? According to some authoritative sources in the industry, there is currently no set of upper-level CNC systems available in the country. This may be the result of the so-called diminishing marginal effect.

The National Science and Technology Major Project of "High-end and Basic Manufacturing Equipment" was put into operation in 2009. The question is whether, in the course of specific operations, we can change the model that was proved to be inefficient or even failure in the past, so that relatively limited resources can play a greater role, rather than the "Tang Yao flesh" that everyone thinks. If this is not the case, the input of additional resources will also be difficult to play, and at the very least it will be used by those companies that currently possess institutional advantages to achieve the goal of whitewashing performance.

Not changing the results will only make the situation worse. The change seems to be necessary. Of course, change requires a price, but this should not be the reason for rejecting the change. Because the result of not changing may be worse.

The selection of Fain CNC is "going out" and opening up regional markets in Southeast Asia, India and Africa.

East China CNC initiative to seek additional capital, plans to issue additional 50 million shares, plan to raise funds of 320 million yuan to repay bank loans, while planning to purchase high-quality machine tool manufacturing resources to enhance operating capacity.

Kunming Machine Tool will develop high-end precision manufacturing as the focus of future efforts, while actively increasing exports.

Shenyang Machine Tool Co., Ltd. stated that it will promote the adjustment of product structure of medium-to-high-end CNC machine tools and strengthen its independent research and development capabilities while focusing on expanding overseas operations in Germany.

It should be said that the market has forced companies to make corresponding strategic adjustments to adapt to changes in the situation. However, whether these ways of seeking change can play a positive role will require time to test.

Institutional economics believes that the industrial form formed by a region is directly related to its social ecological structure. In this sense, if you don't care about the conditions, you can easily give up the business that you can control, and get involved in areas beyond your abilities, you may be faced with even greater risks. Especially for those large-scale state-owned enterprises. The reason is not complicated. At the moment, all aspects advocate positive innovation, but it is difficult for people to truly feel the existence of innovation. Because innovation also requires conditions. Without mechanism innovation and not providing a good social mechanism for innovation, innovation will only be empty talk. In this sense, there is still a long way to go for the domestic machine tool industry to change the state of existence of relying on heaven.