The future of electric cars or in the private market

Although new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, have many problems in their promotion before, they are still highly hoped and eagerly concerned by all parties as a direct driving force for green transportation. At the 2013 China Green Energy Summit Forum, Li Xinan, inspector of the Ministry of Science and Technology's Policy and Regulation Department, pointed out that China's development of electric vehicles to improve the competitiveness of the automotive industry is a need to ensure energy security and the development of a low-carbon economy. It is also an important part of achieving beautiful China.

In mid-November, the latest list of pilot cities for new energy vehicles was uploaded on the Internet. This round of the list (including the city circle) totaled 44 and involved 26 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities. On November 26th, the first batch of confirmed 28 cities or regions were released. In 2009, the first launch list of the “Ten Thousand Vehicles Demonstration Project in Ten Cities” included only 13 cities, and the importance and popularity of the new energy automobile industry in various regions is evident.

Market demand is lower than expected As an electric vehicle that carries the mission of green traffic, it is undoubtedly the “killer” for solving the mission of energy conservation and emission reduction in the transportation sector.

At present, the market demand for electric vehicles has begun to grow rapidly in developed countries such as the United States. In the United States in the first half of the year, including hybrids and electric vehicles, a total of 287,000 units were sold, and the sales volume increased by 23%, setting another record high. On the other hand, at home, not only has the gap between technology and the advanced countries increased, but it has also been difficult to match with market demand. According to incomplete statistics from China Automobile Association, in the first half of the year, China sold less than 20,000 new energy vehicles (including hybrid and natural gas vehicles). Li Xinnan, an inspector of the Ministry of Science and Technology, believes that the current state of our country does not meet the development laws of the automobile industry. As an emerging industry, electric vehicles are the most important factor in the development of the market. Only when there is a fundamental internal demand for the market can the industry be able to achieve a sound development with the help of technological innovation.

So, why is the domestic new energy automobile market and products difficult to be accepted by users? According to Chen Quanshi, director of the Electric Vehicles Branch of the China Automotive Engineering Society, many enterprises currently entering the new energy vehicle industry are only pegged to the country’s planned quantity and subsidy amount, and have not used all their minds to meet the needs of the market and users. We did not find the basic laws, lacked a clear awareness of market and demand, and did not combine technology and products.

Over the years, the charging and changing facilities for electric vehicles have lags behind, and the cost for follow-up maintenance of ordinary vehicles for ordinary families has remained high. The vast majority of people are reluctant to do "white mice" and "see more buy less", resulting in electric The automotive market is slow to develop and the promotion effect is lower than expected.

Analyzing the successful experience of Tesla in the United States, it can be seen that it can succeed because it aims at the real user market and develops products for its needs. In addition, the United States market has a very good entrepreneurial environment, and the government has let go of the company to seek development space in the market, but also important reasons. In this regard, Li Xinan's opinion is that the government's focus on promoting the development of the electric vehicle industry may be more market, rather than directly intervene in the R & D technology line.

"Micro bus" crack promotion problems How far is electric vehicle as an alternative vehicle to traditional energy vehicles? Can it effectively alleviate the chronic problems of urban traffic congestion and the resulting environmental pollution?

Recently, in Hangzhou, a pure electric-driven mini car called “micro bus” is gradually becoming popular. It is understood that "micro bus" is a "proprietary electric vehicle time-sharing leasing" business jointly initiated by Geely Holding Group and Kandy Technology Group in China. The so-called "time-sharing lease" is the right to use taxis for renting in units of hours. People can rent a car at a rental point and return it to any of the city's outlets for use by other users. Users only need to present their driving license, fill out a rental contract, and then pay a deposit of 1,000 yuan by credit card to drive the road.

Xu Man had just passed the driver's license two months ago and had not bought a car. He used to be riding a bus or a taxi. Since the launch of “micro bus”, she often rents electric vehicles as a means of transportation at rental points not far from home. “Micro bus” basically meets the need of the full-time mother to pick up and go to school sooner or later. "Car rental costs 20 yuan per hour, usually go out for 2 hours. The cost of renting a micro bus is about 40 yuan. "The cost is only about half the taxi. You don't have to worry about hitting the car during the peak period, and it is much more comfortable than crowded buses." It's up."

Xu Man told reporters that in addition to paying rent, other things such as vehicle insurance (safety insurance) taxes and maintenance costs do not have to worry about. This new mode of transport is also changing her and her family's car concept: "You can rent it at any time because the car is small, it is convenient for parking, and the electric car has no pollution from exhaust gas, and it is energy-saving and environmentally friendly. I feel very good."

According to the staff introduction, from the trial run in October 2013, only the “micro bus” leased station on Gudun Road in Hangzhou has dozens of car hires per day. ""Micro bus" can be regarded as an upgraded public bicycle, which is in line with the requirements of the "Great Public Transport" concept in modern cities." Wei Zhaohong, deputy director of the Automotive Industry Department of Hangzhou Economic and Credit Commission, said that "micro bus" is flexible and convenient. Use methods attract people to start buying more low-carbon and environmentally friendly public transportation services.

Experts said that the "micro bus" model may become a breakthrough in the promotion of electric vehicles.

Future prospects or individuals in the private market pointed out that due to the same characteristics of “use, recovery and sharing”, “micro bus” can be regarded as “upgraded public bicycle” and will become the city’s “big public transportation” system. An important part of "If we compare the main lines of subways and buses to the major arteries, then the distance from subway stations and bus stops to the entrance to the house is capillaries, and "micro-transportation" must become a capillary network that connects urban traffic." Hu Xiaoming, president of the Automotive Holding Group, said that the company plans to establish large and small rental points all over Hangzhou to put points into a network and put thousands of pure electric vehicles on it to create a traffic sharing platform for electric vehicles in the capillary network. The circulation flows.

In addition to Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, and other places have also started similar trials of "time-share leasing" for electric vehicles.

However, it is worth noting that the pure electric "micro bus" model is positioned in the city as a substitute for traditional cars, but this model is still far from successful. Its development is first constrained by the degree of scale. "Only There are enough service outlets for the exchange of electricity, and it is more convenient for the users to return the car by car. Only in this way can the real sense of traffic sharing be achieved, the operating costs of the enterprise can be reduced, and the vehicles with more production designs can meet the needs of the users, Hu Xiaoming said.

Consumers buy electric car rental services in order to use this service better. The cost-effectiveness of this service is compared to traditional car rental services. If this aspect has limited advantages, it means the development of this service. Will be limited.

Compared with the traditional vehicle rental, the driving range is a serious injury to the electric vehicle. Consumers do not want their rental car to stay on the charging pile for most of the time. If the replacement mode is used, it can be used to supplement energy in a short period of time, but the average number of batteries per vehicle in this area is appropriate. The rising costs and the cost of battery life may also have potential for profitability. Limited, so the future of electric car rental is still more of a demonstration operation, the future of electric vehicles is still more in the private market.

In addition, people in the industry also suggested that a more complete financial subsidy policy should be formulated as soon as possible to increase the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate in promotion.