The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 31st of the local time that the U.S. GDP in the second quarter increased by 1.9% from the previous quarter, almost double the growth rate in the first quarter. Before this, the market generally expects that the U.S. economic growth will accelerate in the second quarter, and the growth rate will be around 2%, mainly due to the government's temporary fiscal stimulus plan. In addition, the increase in net exports from the United States has also brought new impetus to economic growth.
The effect of temporary tax rebate can not be ignored
The Ministry of Commerce also announced that the initial value of economic growth was revised to 0.9% in the first quarter, and the previously announced figure was 1.0%. The second quarter GDP growth data for the initial release will be revised twice in August and September.
According to Gort, chief economist of the US research organization Global Perspectives, if there is no provisional tax refund measure introduced by the government, it is difficult to predict how much consumer spending will weaken, he said, as the tax rebate effect ebbs, consumer spending is weak It will be revealed later this year.
A recent study showed that after the U.S. government launched the economic stimulus plan in May and June and sent check for tax refunds, the consumption of the U.S. commons increased significantly. According to statistics, by the end of June, the U.S. government sent a total of approximately 78 billion U.S. dollars worth of refund checks.
Researchers from relevant agencies in the United States tracked 30,000 households who had received or were about to receive tax refund cheques and recorded their weekly expenditures to study whether the fiscal stimulus was working.
The results of the study showed that after the government sent refund checks, the average spending on American food, department stores, and medicines increased by 3.5%. This extra cost means that on average, every citizen who gets a check applies a 20% rebate to fast consumables such as food. Statistics show that the tax rebates directly led to a 2.4% increase in non-durable goods sales in the United States in the second quarter and a further increase of 4.1% in the third quarter.
IMF Says U.S. will not fall into recession
In the annual assessment report for the US economy released this week, the International Monetary Fund expressed concern about the country’s economic outlook. The IMF’s report predicts that the U.S. economy is expected to maintain its growth this year, but the slowdown is certain. Moreover, the report also predicts that the economic recovery of the United States in 2009 will be "very slow."
The IMF believes that the economic outlook of the United States is facing uncertainty because the housing market and financial industry have brought unprecedented challenges to the economy. The report pointed out that so far, the US economy has shown some resilience to the cooling of the housing market and credit crunch.
However, the report also pointed out that inflation and falling house prices have brought great risks to the U.S. economy. If the problems in the financial industry continue, the economy will face more difficulties.
However, the IMF does not believe that the United States will fall into recession. The report predicts that the U.S. economy can grow by 1.3% this year and the core inflation rate should be controlled. The report said that the U.S. economy will significantly weaken under the impact of high oil prices, but it can still grow this year and gradually recover next year, with an expected increase of 0.8%.
According to the IMF, house prices are the key to economic recovery in the United States. If the property market fails to recover, the growth rate of the US economy will still be lower than the trend level by the middle of next year. The organization warned that house prices may still fall sharply, and acceptance may cause greater harm to the economy.
The IMF called for the Fed to temporarily keep interest rates unchanged unless the economic and financial markets deteriorate further. The report believes that the current 2% of the official interest rate has been able to deal with the risk of recession. The report opposed the introduction of the second round of fiscal stimulus plan by the United States Congress and urged U.S. officials to reform financial supervision. The IMF said that this round of fiscal stimulus that has been launched is timely and effective, but it does not need to come up with a new fiscal stimulus plan.
The effect of temporary tax rebate can not be ignored
The Ministry of Commerce also announced that the initial value of economic growth was revised to 0.9% in the first quarter, and the previously announced figure was 1.0%. The second quarter GDP growth data for the initial release will be revised twice in August and September.
According to Gort, chief economist of the US research organization Global Perspectives, if there is no provisional tax refund measure introduced by the government, it is difficult to predict how much consumer spending will weaken, he said, as the tax rebate effect ebbs, consumer spending is weak It will be revealed later this year.
A recent study showed that after the U.S. government launched the economic stimulus plan in May and June and sent check for tax refunds, the consumption of the U.S. commons increased significantly. According to statistics, by the end of June, the U.S. government sent a total of approximately 78 billion U.S. dollars worth of refund checks.
Researchers from relevant agencies in the United States tracked 30,000 households who had received or were about to receive tax refund cheques and recorded their weekly expenditures to study whether the fiscal stimulus was working.
The results of the study showed that after the government sent refund checks, the average spending on American food, department stores, and medicines increased by 3.5%. This extra cost means that on average, every citizen who gets a check applies a 20% rebate to fast consumables such as food. Statistics show that the tax rebates directly led to a 2.4% increase in non-durable goods sales in the United States in the second quarter and a further increase of 4.1% in the third quarter.
IMF Says U.S. will not fall into recession
In the annual assessment report for the US economy released this week, the International Monetary Fund expressed concern about the country’s economic outlook. The IMF’s report predicts that the U.S. economy is expected to maintain its growth this year, but the slowdown is certain. Moreover, the report also predicts that the economic recovery of the United States in 2009 will be "very slow."
The IMF believes that the economic outlook of the United States is facing uncertainty because the housing market and financial industry have brought unprecedented challenges to the economy. The report pointed out that so far, the US economy has shown some resilience to the cooling of the housing market and credit crunch.
However, the report also pointed out that inflation and falling house prices have brought great risks to the U.S. economy. If the problems in the financial industry continue, the economy will face more difficulties.
However, the IMF does not believe that the United States will fall into recession. The report predicts that the U.S. economy can grow by 1.3% this year and the core inflation rate should be controlled. The report said that the U.S. economy will significantly weaken under the impact of high oil prices, but it can still grow this year and gradually recover next year, with an expected increase of 0.8%.
According to the IMF, house prices are the key to economic recovery in the United States. If the property market fails to recover, the growth rate of the US economy will still be lower than the trend level by the middle of next year. The organization warned that house prices may still fall sharply, and acceptance may cause greater harm to the economy.
The IMF called for the Fed to temporarily keep interest rates unchanged unless the economic and financial markets deteriorate further. The report believes that the current 2% of the official interest rate has been able to deal with the risk of recession. The report opposed the introduction of the second round of fiscal stimulus plan by the United States Congress and urged U.S. officials to reform financial supervision. The IMF said that this round of fiscal stimulus that has been launched is timely and effective, but it does not need to come up with a new fiscal stimulus plan.
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