In June 2012, the vehicle wholesale volume was 1.578 million, which was a 1.7% decrease from the previous period and a 9.9% year-on-year increase. The overall sales maintained a relatively rapid growth. Sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles grew 15.8% and -10.2% year-on-year, respectively. In the first half of the year, the cumulative number of automobile wholesale sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year, achieving a slight increase. Passenger cars are the main driving force for the growth of the industry. The cumulative growth rate of sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles and large and medium-sized passenger vehicles is relatively fast, and the sales growth of SUVs is relatively fast. Far ahead.
Passenger Cars: Sales volume is in the recovery channel, and the differentiated and sustainable passenger vehicle industry is still in the sales recovery channel. The rapid increase in wholesale volume in June mainly includes: Manufacturers bear some price pressures and pressure stocks, the base period is not high, and oil prices are lowered. Local governments subsidize micro-customers. The channel inventory continued to grow, and the terminal discount rate increased significantly. The rapid release of production capacity will lag behind earnings recovery. Joint venture brands, mid-to-high end, and SUVs will continue to outperform in the industry's modest recovery.
Passenger Cars: Growth of sales volume of large and medium-sized passengers has dropped somewhat. In June, passenger car sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year, accumulating 2.7% year-on-year, and sales growth of large and medium-sized passengers declined. Bus, export, and school bus sales grew faster than the industry average. The product structure of the passenger car industry continued to increase, and the sales of school buses have dropped back in the short term. However, the industry has not yet brought in considerable new demand, which has increased the upward sales volume of the industry.
Heavy truck: In the process of bottoming, the sales volume of heavy trucks hit a new low in sales since 2009. In June, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 49,786 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%, and the monthly sales volume since 2Q09 was a new low. At present, infrastructure and logistics demand have not shown any significant improvement, and manufacturers have continuously reduced their inventory since February. We believe that the current heavy truck demand is a large part of the demand for renewal and export, and there is little probability that sales will deteriorate significantly. The recovery of 2H12 will depend on the policy expectation, as well as the recovery of infrastructure demand, which in turn will drive up new demand.
Industry Investment Ratings and Strategic Suggestions Maintenance of “Careful Recommendations†for the Industry Investment rating: Among them, large and medium-sized companies are cautiously recommended, cars are cautiously recommended, and heavy trucks are neutral. At present, the passenger vehicle industry is at the starting point of a new round of growth-recession cycle, and sales of 2H12 passenger vehicles are expected to continue to rise moderately. However, based on the pressure from production capacity and the relatively optimistic sales target of manufacturers, earnings recovery will lag behind sales volume recovery. At this stage, joint ventures The brand-name mid- to high-end passenger car-related vehicles and parts and components companies are expected to outperform. It is recommended that Beijing Weiwei, Great Wall Motor, FAW Fuwei, SAIC, and Changan Automobile be equipped. The overall demand for bus industry is steadily increasing. The products continue to be high-end, and the industry's competitive landscape is stable. It is recommended to match the leading Yutong buses in the industry; the heavy truck industry, with relatively stable demands such as current renewal and exports, will have a relatively high demand, and the probability of further deterioration of sales volume will be small. Can 2H12 be able to Recovery depends on the policy to stimulate new demand.
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