Blowout crisis sales of passenger cars in June or 15% year-on-year

Although the official statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers have not yet been released, monitoring from multiple sources shows that the car sales data in June will be very bright. However, behind the "blowout", dealers and car manufacturers can not laugh. Research shows that dealer inventory has reached a new high over the same period, and subject to changes in the consumer environment, local dealers have expressed concern that they hope the manufacturers can introduce a subsidy policy or reduce the previously released target.

Yesterday, the reporter learned from UBS that, according to the bank's own statistics on domestic passenger car channels, the wholesale sales of 18 mainstream automobile manufacturers in the Mainland recorded a year-on-year increase of 15.7%. Based on this, the sales of passenger cars in June are expected to reach 1.1 million, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year.

According to data obtained by the reporter from Merrill Lynch, the bank also monitored high growth in June. According to pull calculations, domestic luxury cars have become "lotou", an increase of 22% year-on-year; and mainstream car brands also have an increase of 13%. The most inferior ones are self-owned brands, and only 2% increase.

Some manufacturers have already reduced their sales target in the third quarter to half of their sales in the first half of the year. Some manufacturers have reported to the reporters. Yesterday, Ford told reporters that in the last month, Ford brand passenger vehicles sold a total of 52,440 vehicles or an increase of 18%, which is the company's monthly sales record for three consecutive months. The data provided by Guangqi Honda to reporters is that the cumulative sales volume in the first half of the year was 176,324 units, an increase of 14% year-on-year. The new song poetry map has contributed more than 14,777 sales.

However, reporters have already seen “negative energy” accumulated in the auto market behind the “blowout”. Yesterday, a US car dealer told reporters that he was on vacation. "The sales target given to us by the manufacturers in the third quarter has been reduced by more than half."

“Because some major cities have successively introduced new car purchase restriction policies, it may cause terminal sales to fluctuate, and the inherent risks in the market cannot be prevented.” Yao Yiming, deputy general manager of Guangqi Honda, told reporters.

25% of dealers want manufacturers to reduce the car market with a seemingly hot car market, but the crisis is all over the place. What is the "subtlety" in this? The reporter learned that since the sales statistics of car enterprises are calculated by wholesale calibers, this means that if the dealers pick up the goods, they are not actually sold to consumers. They may also be counted as sales data of manufacturers. In fact, behind the rapid growth in June is the increase in stocks.

Yesterday, the reporter obtained data from Merrill Lynch, showing that the dealer’s inventory index had hit a new high of nearly three years in June. Of the 16 dealers included in the statistics of mainstream car manufacturers, the inventory turnover time reached 52 days, which was 7% longer than that in May. Among them, self-owned brands last for 90 to 97 days, and joint venture brands also have 40 to 43 days. UBS’s data also supports the above view. The bank believes that inventory and stock prices have increased significantly in late June due to the need for dealers and automakers to sprint to sales targets. Sales in July will be under pressure, because summer is the traditional off-sale period of automobile sales, and if you need to continue to the manufacturers, you need to digest inventory first.

“After a round of buying, the terminal inventory structure has undergone great changes.” Yesterday, an analyst from the automotive market research company Wilson told this reporter that after a study on a Guangzhou dealer, he discovered a mid-to-high-end model. The proportion of inventories with high-grade vehicles increased, and some independent brands failed to seize the opportunity to absorb the serious inventory backlog.

The above analysts said: “In the dealers we talked to, the three adults hope that manufacturers can increase subsidies in the second half of the year, 25% hope that manufacturers can reduce vehicle allocation, and two adults appeal to manufacturers to allow cross-regional sales.”

"Now you can use tears to describe." A dealer told this reporter that he most hoped to be manufacturers to introduce subsidies, the most direct is to reduce the release of the target and for the current market to dealers additional "return point" .